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The August 2008 U.S. Automobile Sales Statistics: Reliable Two Sales Drop, But Maybe for Tactical Reasons; Big Three Sales Plunge, But GM Sidesteps a Chasm by Super Inflating Incentives
AutoOnInfo.net September 2008
The August 2008 U.S. Automobile Sales Statistics: Reliable Two Sales Drop, But Maybe for Tactical Reasons; Big Three Sales Plunge, But GM Sidesteps a Chasm by Super Inflating Incentives
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .89, saw its U.S. auto sales drop 9% in August 2008, over those of August 2007. Its August U.S. car sales fell 4%, and its U.S. light truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales fell 16%. However, Toyota's drop in sales may have been artificially heightened, in part, to meet soaring demand outside North America and, in part, to make Toyota's growing U.S. market share more politically palatable as GM dramatically cuts production, inflates already inflated incentives, suffers staggering losses, and sets records for recent years of quality dearth. (See "As Consumers Across the Globe Race to Quality, Toyota's, Honda's, Nissan's, and Mazda's Global Output Soars to Meet Demand," for a related article.) Also in part, the drop in sales may reflect an attempt to help the Big Three, as a premature demise of any of them would not be in the best interests of Toyota; however, it appears that the primary benefit of any effort to make product scarce in the U.S. went to Subaru and Nissan in August.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of August 2008 and year-to-date, together with 1999-2003 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. A model name in bold denotes a hottest seller in January 2008 by the Wall Street Journal's lot-stay time.
Table I: Toyota Motor Corporation's August 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, TMC's Year-to-Date 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, and 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Averages, for Manufacturer, Line, and Model Manu-facturer Divi-sion Type of Vehicle Model and (distinctions) August 2008 Unit Sales Volume Percent-age Change for August 2008 from August 2007 The 2008 Year-to-Date Unit Sales Volume The 2008 Year-to-Date Percent-age Change 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 211,533 -9.4% 1,649,043 -8.3% .89 Scion Division 11,867 -19.7% 89,647 2.1% N/A15 xA (R05, R08, RA08) 0 -100.0% 39 -99.6% N/A16 xB (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, GW07) 4,626 -13.2% 35,633 22.3% N/A17 tC (GB08) 4,484 -32.0% 33,001 -29.2% N/A xD (RA08) 2,757 3.5% 20,974 683.5% N/A Toyota Division 170,385 -8.6% 1,371,222 -7.9% .88 Passenger Car 99,911 -1.0% 817,813 -1.1% N/A Avalon (GB08, Tr08, GS07, GC07) 3,467 -41.0% 30,905 -36.6% .95 Camry (AL07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R05, R06, RV07, RA08, Tr08, 4-cyl. hybrid: R08, RA08, GD07, GD08, 6-cyl.: Tr08, 6-cyl. Solara: RA08) 44,0648 3.3% 326,076 -0.1% .93,.88, .92,.8510 Corolla (R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, Tr08, RV07, AL07, 5-spd manual: GD07, GD08, Matrix: R08, RA08) 29,443 -3.4% 258,369 -2.0% .93 Prius (CL07, T05, T06, T07, T08, R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, Tr08, RV07, GT07, GD07, GD08, GW07, GS07, GC07) 13,463 -4.2% 119,688 -4.4% .91 Yaris2 (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, E08, RV07, 5-spd manual: GD07, GD08) 9,474 20.5% 82,774 31.8% .9718 Light Truck 70,474 -17.6% 553,409 -16.4% N/A RAV4 (SUV) (CL07, T07, T08, R05, R06, R07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R08, RA08, RV07, RIT) 12,911 -18.9% 96,433 -18.4% .9719 Sienna (minivan) (T07, T08, R08, GB08, GS07) 10,244 -7.7% 85,240 -11.7% .8320 Highlander (mid-size SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R07, R08, GB08, GS07, 4-cyl.: GW07, E08, Tr08, 6-cyl.: RA08, Tr08, RV07, hybrid: T06, T07) 8,0709 -15.2% 76,222 -8.7% .9911 FJ Cruiser (SUV) (R07) 1,886 -60.7% 20,125 -48.2% N/A 4Runner (SUV) (CL07, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, 6-cyl.: E08, Tr08, RV07, GS07) 4,115 -50.5% 34,343 -42.3% .9312 Sequoia (large SUV) (GB08, E08) 3,195 86.1% 22,562 37.8% .68 Land Cruiser (large SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R08, GB08, E08, Tr08, RV07, RIT) 245 35.4% 3,017 88.9% .94 Tundra (pickup truck) (R05, R06, GB08, 6-cyl.: GW07, GS07, GC07, 6-cyl. 2wd: E08, 8-cyl. 2wd: R08, E08, 8-cyl. 4wd: E08) 17,401 -8.0% 107,330 -14.5% .8613 Tacoma (pickup truck) (AL072, 4-cyl.: R08, E08, Tr08, V6: E08, Tr08, RIT) 12,407 -17.8% 108,137 -11.4% .9314 Lexus Division 29,281 -9.1% 188,174 -14.7% .91 Passenger Car 17,844 -9.8% 112,322 -17.5% N/A ES (CL07, T07A, R07, RV07, GB08, RIT) 7,881 -8.8% 46,600 -17.1% .96 LS (CL07, T05, R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08, E08, Tr08, RV07, RIT, L: T08) 1,7727 -44.0% 14,792 -37.2% .99 GS (R06, 450h: R08, RA08, GB08, 6-cyl. rwd: E08, Tr08, V8: Tr08) 1,6866 -26.7% 12,042 -22.3% .973 SC (hardtop convertible) (R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08, E08, Tr08) 187 -37.2% 1,560 -42.5% .881 IS (R05, R06, R08, GB08, E08, Tr08) 6,3184 17.4% 37,328 -2.1% .94 Light Truck 11,437 -7.8% 75,852 -10.2% N/A RX (SUV) (T05, R08, RA08, GB08, RIT, GS07) 8,9695 -10.6% 58,580 -13.9% .95 GX (SUV) (GB08) 1,720 -20.3% 11,503 -20.7% .781 LX (large SUV) (R05, RA08, Tr08) 748 238.5% 5,769 191.1% .84 Gas-Electric Hybrids 19,529 -3.7% 185,051 -3.0% N/A Toyota Division 18,146 -3.1% 171,972 N/A N/A Lexus Division 1,383 -11.9% 13,079 N/A N/A Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. A model name in bold denotes a hottest seller in January by the Wall Street Journal's lot-stay time. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the GS is .97 and that of the V6 rear-wheel-drive GS is .90. 4The August 2008 sales breakdown of the IS 250, the IS 350, and the IS F was unstated. 5The Lexus RX 350 had August sales of 7,692 (down 13.2% from August 2007) and the hybrid RX 400h - 1,277 (up 9.0%). 6The August 2008 sales breakdown of the Lexus GSs was unstated. 7The August 2008 sales breakdown of the Lexus LSs was unstated. 8The non-hybrid Camry had August sales of 40,608 (up 5.8%) and the Camry Hybrid - 3,456 (down 19.3%). 9The non-hybrid Highlander had August sales of 6,843 (%age change is unavailable) and the Highlander Hybrid - 1,227 (%age change is unavailable). 10The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the 4-cylinder Camry is .93, that of the V6 Camry is .88, that of the Camry Solara is .92, and that of the V6 Camry Solara is .85. However, it should be noted that the V6 Camry Solara's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .47, a disaster for a Toyota product, but very much above average for a Big Three product. 11The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Highlander. 12This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 4Runner. 13The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V8 Tundra. 14This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Tacoma. 15The Scion line's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank average (based on only one year of data) is .88. 16The Scion xA's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .90. 17The Scion xB's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .86. 18This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is that of the Echo, the Yaris' less refined predecessor. 19This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the 4-cylinder RAV4. 20Advisory: While the 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank of the Toyota Sienna is .83, the early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .54 and that of the all-wheel-drive Toyota Sienna is even worse - .31, both surprisingly bad for Toyota (but excellent when compared with Big Three minivan Percentranks). T05 denotes a Consumer Reports 2005 Top Pick, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick, T08 - a CR 2008 Top Pick, T05 - a CR 2005 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T08 - a CR 2008 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T05A - a CR 2005 Top Pick alternate, T06A - a CR 2006 Top Pick alternate, and T07A - a CR 2007 Top Pick alternate. R05 denotes that Consumer Reports accorded the 2005 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R06 - that CR accorded the 2006 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R07 - that CR accorded the 2007 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, and R08 - that CR accorded the 2008 model its highest predicted short-term reliability. RV07 denotes a best model by CR's 2007 Reliability Verdicts. RA08 denotes a 2008 best model by CR's Reliability-Verdict history from the 5 most-recent model years. GB08 denotes a CR 2008 Good Bet. E08 denotes a model with a Best Engine by CR's engine reliability verdicts for 6-to-10-year-old vehicles. Tr08 denotes a model with a Best Transmission by CR's transmission reliability verdicts for 6-to-10-year-old vehicles. RIT denotes a top-ten model by the 2007 Reliability Index. CL07 denotes a Consumer Reports 2007 best bet "for the long run," i.e., a good candidate for a long distance runner. AL07 denotes a model with 5 or more listings on AOI's 300,000+ mile roster. The Toyota Tacoma pickup and its predecessor, the Toyota Pickup, have a pooled count. GT07 denotes that it is one of two current models that have reduced exhaust emissions sufficiently to receive a permit to use the car pool lanes on Arizona's freeways. (See "Cleaning Arizona Air: The Exclusive Three," Auto on Info, March 2007.) GD07 denotes that the 2007 model, or specified edition of the model, is on GreenerCars.com's top dozen green cars. GD08 denotes that the 2008 model, or specified edition of the model, is on GreenerCars.org's top dozen green cars. GW07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is best in category on global warming performance, by the Union of Concerned Scientists, GS07 denotes best in category on smog performance, and GC07 denotes best in category on combined environmental performance. (See "By Yet Another Quality Measure, Toyota and Honda Are Best and GM and DaimlerChrysler - Worst: The UCS 2007 Environmental Report," Auto on Info, April 2007.) To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2007 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability for Model Year 2007, Toyota and Honda Dominate Best and GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler Dominate Worst, per Detroit News Table," Auto on Info, November 2006. To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2008 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability Scores for Model Year 2008, Toyota and Honda Marques Gather 5 of 6 Best, GM Marques Gather 3 of 7 Worst, 5 of 9 Worst and 7 of 13 Worst: Is GM on a Quest to Be Junk's Absolute Monarch?" Auto on Info, October 2007. In August 2008, Toyota Motor Corporation reported sales in the U.S. of 19,529 hybrid vehicles, down 3.7% over August 2007. The Toyota division had sales of 18,146 hybrids, down 3.1%, and the Lexus division had sales of 1,383 hybrids, down 11.9%. The decline reflects a severe shortage of parts (one or more new battery lines will come on-line in 2009) and surging international demand. It also likely reflects a political decision to direct hybrid product to other countries in order to keep U.S. sales lower at a time when Big Three sales are plunging.
The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in August 2008 over August 2007 were the Lexus LX 570 large sport-utility vehicle, up 238.5% to 748, the Toyota Sequoia large sport-utility vehicle, up 86.1% to 3,195, the Toyota Land Cruiser large sport-utility vehicle, up 35.4% to 245, the Toyota Yaris small car, up 20.5% to 9,474, the Lexus IS, up 17.4% to 6,318, the Lexus RX 400h midsize hybrid sport-utility vehicle, up 9.0% to 1,277, the non-hybrid Toyota Camry family car, up 5.8% to 40,608, and the Scion xD, up 3.5% to 2,757.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in August 2008 Lexus LX 570 Toyota Sequoia Toyota Land Cruiser Toyota Yaris Lexus IS Lexus RX 400h (Non-hybrid) Toyota Camry Scion xD The above photos are of the 2008 models and the links in the unhighlighted cells are to onsite review pages of the 2008 models and the links in the highlighted cells are to onsite review pages of the 2007 models. Note that Toyota's 3 hottest sellers in August (as well as in May, June and July) were large sport-utility vehicles, a class of automobiles that most of the press have said has fallen out of favor.
With respect to unit sales volume in the U.S., 6 of the top 20 sellers were Toyota vehicles. The following table lists the Toyota models that were among the U.S.'s 20 best sellers in August 2008.
Toyota Motor Corporation's Top 5 Sellers in August 2008, Together with Unit Sales Model Unit Sales The Toyota Camry/Hybrid family car 44,064 The legendary Toyota Corolla/Matrix small car 29,443 The Toyota Tundra large pickup truck 17,401 The Toyota Prius hybrid family car 13,463 The Toyota RAV4 small sport-utility vehicle 12,911 The Toyota Tacoma midsize pickup truck 12,407 The next table depicts these five top sellers and provides links to onsite reviews.
Toyota's Best Sellers in August 2008 Toyota Camry Toyota Camry Hybrid Toyota Corolla Toyota Tundra Toyota Prius Toyota RAV4 Toyota Tacoma The above photos are of the 2008 models and the links in cells are to onsite review pages of the 2008 models. The Toyota Corolla is an internationally renowned 40-year legend of reliability, durability (see "Site Manager Replaces Corolla Transmission: 1984 Torque Converter Expires at 478,943 Miles," Auto on Info, June 2005 and "Site Manager's 1984 Corolla Passes 500,000 Mark," Auto on Info, October 2006), and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.
The likelihood of finding a new made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 81.1% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through August 2008 were made in North America, 98.1% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through August 2008 were made in North America, and 72.5% of the RXs sold in the U.S. through August 2008 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2007 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America. Currently, all Yaris and Priuses sold in the U.S. are made abroad; however, Toyota plans North American production of these models, so it may behoove U.S. consumers eyeing the Yaris or Prius to buy or order it soon. To ascertain whether a vehicle is made in Japan, check the first alphanumeric in the vehicle's identification number; if it is a J, the vehicle was made in Japan.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .84, saw its August 2008 U.S. auto sales fall 7%. Honda Motor Company's model showing the largest sales gains in August 2008 over August 2007 was the Honda Civic hybrid (a 2008 best model, a 2007 CR Top Pick alternate in Green Car category, a 2007 CR Top Pick in Small Sedan category, a recipient of a CR's 2007 "Most Reliable" rating for predicted short-term reliability, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest ownership satisfaction rating for predicted short-term satisfaction, a recipient of a CR's 2007 second-highest accident avoidance rating from road test performance, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest crash protection rating, one of Arizona's two "green cars" for car pool lane usage, and No. 3 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen), up 47.7% to 3,105.
Honda's Hottest Seller in August 2008 Honda Civic Hybrid The above photo is of the 2008 models and the link is to an onsite review page of the 2008 model. It appears that Honda too is tactically distributing output to countries other than the U.S.; its July 2008 global output soared 17.7% to meet the worldwide consumer rush to quality.
Of the 20 top selling models in the U.S., 4 were Hondas. The following table lists these four top sellers by Honda, together with sales.
Honda Motor Company's Top 4 Sellers in August 2008, Together with Unit Sales Model Unit Sales The Honda Accord/Hybrid family car 43,613 The Honda Civic/Hybrid small car 30,052 The Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle 19,866 The Honda Odyssey minivan 15,546 The next table depicts these four top sellers and provides links to onsite reviews.
Honda's Best Sellers in August 2008 Honda Accord Honda Civic DX, LX, EX, and EX-L Sedans Honda Civic DX, LX, EX, and EX-L Coupes Honda Civic Si Sedan Honda Civic Si Coupe Honda Civic GX Sedan Honda Civic Hybrid Sedan Honda CR-V Honda Odyssey The above photos are of the 2008 models and the links in the unhighlighted cells are to an onsite review page of the 2008 model and the links in the highlighted cells are to an onsite review page of the 2007 model. Through August 2008, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 16,018 vehicles, or 18.8%, and the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 45,663 vehicles, or 47.4%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1999-2003 RPA of .96 and a CR 2007 and 2008 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1999-2003 RPA of .97 (4-cylinder) and a CR 2007 and 2008 (4-cylinder) predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. Also, both the 4-cylinder Toyota RAV4 and the Honda CR-V are on the list of Best Cars and Trucks of 2008 by CR Reliability-Verdict History for the 5 Most-Recent Model Years and are CR 2008 Good Bets. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, neither the Honda Odyssey nor the Toyota Sienna have fared well recently relative to other Honda and Toyota products (although the 2008 Toyota Sienna has a predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category per CR's website and in CR's second-highest category per its publication Cars: Best and Worst for '08 and is a CR 2008 Top Pick and both the Odyssey and the Sienna are CR 2008 Good Bets), but have fared excellently relative to Big Three alternatives, as the following table helps demonstrate.
Reliability Scores, Percentranks and Grades of the 2003 Toyota Sienna Minivan and the Honda Odyssey Minivan and Minivan Alternatives Model Reliability Score Reliability Percentrank Reliability Grade Toyota Sienna .50 .73 C- Honda Odyssey .50 .73 C- General Motors' regular Chevrolet Venture Van .35 .57 F Chrysler's 2-wheel-drive V6 Dodge Grand Caravan .12 .43 F General Motors' regular Pontiac Montana Van .04 .37 F Chrysler's V6 Dodge Caravan -.02 .32 F Chrysler V6 Voyager -.07 .26 F Ford Windstar -.14 .17 F General Motors' Chevrolet Astro Van -.45 .03 F General Motors' GMC Safari Van -.45 .03 F Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1999-2003 RPA of .77, saw its August 2008 U.S. auto sales jump 14%.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .70, saw its August 2008 U.S. auto sales jump 14%. The Nissan division of Nissan Motor saw sales rise 14%, and its Infiniti division saw a sales rise 8%.
Subaru and Nissan may be reaping the greatest benefits from Toyota's and Honda's distribution of output to regions other than North America.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .66, saw its August 2008 U.S. auto sales drop 4%.
Overall, the August 2008 U.S. sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were okay. Nissan and Subaru both saw increases of 14+% and Toyota, Honda and Mazda had modest single digit declines as Big Three sales plunged 20-35%.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .31 and with the distinction of again being the dominant manufacturer on both CR's 2008 least reliable list and CR's 2008 least satisfying list, saw August 2008 U.S. unit sales of its domestic lines plunge 20%, despite sky-high incentives. Although August's 20% plunge is sizable, it is rather Lilliputian when compared with Edmunds.com's estimated precipitous 30+% plunge that would have occurred without GM's most recent round of incentives.
While GM may have chosen staggering losses over staggering sales declines, it likely will not run out of money in the next 8 to 12 years. GM has $21 billion (per GM) in cash and is hoping for another $25 billion, or so, from the government in this political year, when the state of Michigan is in play in the U.S. presidential contest. This will give it $46 billion, and should the U.S. pension guarantee fund extract $8 billion of it, GM will still have $38 billion left. At its present rate of plant closures and restructuring and operating losses, it should be able to burn through most of the balance in 4 years, in time for another government bailout in what will likely be another close presidential race. While the government may be less generous 4 years hence than now, GM should still be able to extract another $15 billion, which should be enough to do business for another 4 years, when account is taken that the needs of a downsized General Motors Corporation should be less. With a little cleverness, General Motors may be introducing a new business model to corporate America.
GM's declining sales come at a time when its models continue to dominate the bottom end of the quality spectrum and are setting new records (at least for recent years) of the Worst of the Worst and Used Cars to Avoid, as the following charts help depict.
Also, GM vehicles dominate the list of the Worst of 2008, the list of vehicles with the worst engines, and the list of vehicles with the worst transmissions, as the following charts help depict.
Chrysler LLC, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .38, again saw its August 2008 U.S. auto sales plunge 34%, despite very hefty incentives.
The following chart depicts the percentage of models, with a CR Reliability-Verdict history of one or more model years, that are among the
